Immigrants are Not Committing More Crime

Editor Notes:  Are we truly focused on reducing crime, addressing immigration, or simply stoking fear? If the goal is to lower crime rates, then the attention should be on those statistically committing more offenses—native-born citizens—rather than scapegoating immigrants. (Link) If opposition to immigration is the stance, that's understandable, even if I don’t personally agree with it. However, that position can be argued without fueling fear across entire immigrant communities. 

The reality is that the GOP, under Trump’s dominant influence, relies on fear-mongering as a political strategy. They see it as a tool to mobilize voters and maintain their grip on power. Fear can be effective in driving political engagement, but it comes at the cost of facts, fairness, and a more constructive dialogue on crime, immigration and damage to due process.  

No, immigrants aren't more likely to commit crimes than US-born, despite Trump's border speech

Published 11:26 a.m. ET March 1, 2024

Terry Collins, USA TODAY (Link)

Former president Donald Trump on Thursday seized on the arrest of an undocumented man in a high-profile murder in Georgia to underscore his assertion that many migrants are dangerous and "coming from prisons."

But research suggests immigrants actually commit fewer crimes than people born in the U.S.

"The findings show pretty consistently undocumented and illegal immigrants have a lower conviction rate and are less likely to be convicted of homicide and other crimes overall compared to native-born Americans in Texas," Alex Nowrasteh, an immigration policy analyst at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington, D.C., told USA TODAY.

Speaking in Eagle Pass, Texas, Thursday, Trump cited the case of Laken Riley, a 22-year-old nursing student, who was brutally murdered last week by a Venezuelan migrant.

He referred to "Biden migrant crime" and blamed President Joe Biden for allowing millions of people to come into the U.S. from other countries.

"And they're coming from jails and they're coming from prisons and they're coming from mental institutions and they're coming from insane asylums and they're terrorists," Trump said, adding that jails from all over the world are "emptying out" into the U.S.

None of the data analyzed by researchers supports those accusations.

Elections Add Topic

According to Nowrasteh's findings from 2012 to 2022, undocumented immigrants have a homicide conviction rate 14% below that of native-born Americans. Immigrants have a 62% lower homicide rate and undocumented immigrants have a 41% lower total criminal conviction rate than native-born Americans.

Most of the data on crime and immigration status in the U.S. comes from the Texas Department of Public Safety, the only agency that keeps such detailed records. Texas has the nation's second-highest population of undocumented immigrants after California, Nowrahsteh said, adding that he believes national data would be similar.

"I don’t think that Trump’s statements accurately convey the reality of immigration,"

Nowrasteh said. Research by Michael Light, a sociology professor at the University of Wisconsin, shows a similar pattern.

"We looked at homicides, sexual assaults, violent crimes, property crimes, traffic and drug violations," Light said. "And what we find across the board is that the undocumented tend to have lower rates of crimes with all of these types of offenses."

The American public, however, has a different impression.

When asked specifically about the impact of immigration on crime in the United States, 57% of Americans surveyed by the Pew Research Center earlier this year said the large number of migrants seeking to enter the country leads to more crime.

Border patrol intercepts migrants with criminal records

For the last 150 years, rates of crimes committed by immigrants once they arrive in this country have been lower than those committed by native-born Americans, said Ran Abramitzky, an Economics professor at Stanford University, who has also studied the data.

Incarceration rates have steadily declined since 1960 among immigrants from all regions, Abramitzsky said. He and other experts said it doesn't make sense for immigrants to commit crimes because they will get kicked out of the country.

"Deportation is quite a hefty penalty, as being removed and sent back to their home country where they have fewer jobs and quality of life opportunities is enough to scare most. No, undocumented immigrant crime rate isn't higher as Trump claimed immigrants," Nowrasteh said.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection does catch a number of criminals as they try to enter the country.

According to Border Patrol statistics, more than 15,000 people with criminal records were arrested at the border in 2023, an increase from about 12,000 the year before. So far in fiscal year 2024, about 5,600 have been arrested. Typically, Border Patrol will conduct a criminal background check of immigrants before releasing them into the U.S. pending a hearing.

Pete Hermansen, a retired Border Patrol agent-in-charge, said during his two-decade career with the agency he saw a statistical pattern in migrant apprehensions at the border.

“Eighty-seven percent are just coming here to better their lives,” he said. “Thirteen percent are a threat to the country. That statistical analysis comes from my 21 years at the Border Patrol, either arresting people, seeing their criminal history or identifying criminals when I ran the intelligence program.”

The partisan politics of immigration

As a result of the strife at the border, Light and Nowrasteh both say they have faced criticism for their work by some who disagree with their findings, yet the researchers argue their numbers bear the truth.

"There are those who find it helpful and those who don't and miss the point and say the undocumented shouldn't be here in the first place," Light said. "I've certainly heard that crime rates are not the point."

Abramitzky said partisan politics typically plays a role in the rhetoric around immigration.

"Whereas Democrats are increasingly more positive when talking about immigrants and pointing to their contributions to the U.S., Republicans remain negative and increasingly focus on crime and legal issues when they talk about immigrants," Abramitzky said.

More enforcement of regulations around immigration won't change immigrant crime rates or prevent horrific murders like Riley's death, Nowrasteh said in a Wednesday blog post.

"The statistics do tell us that deporting all illegal immigrants, ending parole, curtailing asylum, or any combination of those policies would not reduce homicide rates," Nowrahsteh said.

Lauren Villagran contributed to this report.

 

Alex Nowrasteh

Alex Nowrasteh is a Vice President for Economic and Social Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. He is known for his advocacy of freer migration to the United States and has published numerous peer-reviewed studies on immigration. He co-authored the book Wretched Refuse? The Political Economy of Immigration and Institutions, which examines how economic institutions in receiving countries adjust to immigration.

Nowrasteh has been featured in major publications like the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and The Washington Post, and has appeared on Fox News, MSNBC, Bloomberg, and NPR. He has faced criticism from conservatives for his views on immigration.

Born and raised in Southern California, he earned a B.A. in economics from George Mason University and an M.Sc. in economic history from the London School of Economics. His academic work has appeared in journals such as the World Bank Economic Review and Public Choice.

Laken Riley

Laken Riley was a 22-year-old nursing student at Augusta University who was tragically murdered while jogging on the University of Georgia campus on February 22, 2024. Her death was caused by blunt force trauma and asphyxiation. The perpetrator, José Antonio Ibarra, was a 26-year-old Venezuelan man who had entered the United States illegally. He was arrested and charged with multiple crimes, including felony murder, malice murder, kidnapping, and aggravated assault with intent to rape. Ibarra was found guilty on all counts and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

Riley’s murder sparked nationwide outrage and led to the passage of the Laken Riley Act, which requires federal authorities to detain undocumented immigrants who have committed theft-related crimes. The bill was signed into law by President Donald Trump in January 2025, making it the first piece of legislation enacted during his second term.

Her family, including her sister Lauren Phillips, has spoken publicly about her life and faith, describing her as inspirational and deeply faith-driven. Riley was an active member of Alpha Chi Omega sorority and had previously attended the University of Georgia as an undergraduate.

Michael Light

Michael T. Light is a Professor of Sociology and Chicano/Latino Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research focuses on the legal and criminological consequences of international migration, the relationship between racial/ethnic stratification and crime, and the health effects of major social and demographic shifts.

 

Light has published extensively in academic journals, including the American Sociological Review, Criminology, and Social Forces. His work examines topics such as crime among undocumented immigrants, racial disparities in sentencing, and the effects of Latino immigration on violence. He has also studied the collateral consequences of deportation, colorism and punishment, and crime and recidivism among the undocumented.

He earned his Ph.D. in Sociology from Pennsylvania State University in 2013 and holds a B.A. in Sociology from Albion College.

Pete Hermansen

Pete Hermansen is a retired U.S. Border Patrol agent who served as the Special Operations Group Director and DHS/CBP Use of Force Director before retiring in 2017. With 24 years of law enforcement experience, he specialized in homeland security, foreign partnerships, and countering threats to the United States.

Hermansen worked extensively on human and narcotics smuggling cases across the United States, Mexico, and Central/South America, focusing on operations, intelligence collection, and host nation prosecution efforts. He is also a use-of-force subject matter expert and has experience in large procurements under the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR).

After retiring, Hermansen continued to support the Department of Defense and the U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) community. He is a graduate of the John F. Kennedy School of Government Senior Executive Fellowship at Harvard University.

Pew Research Center

The Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, content analysis, and other data-driven social science research. It does not take policy positions but instead provides objective data to inform public discussions on topics like politics, media, technology, religion, race, and international affairs.

Founded in 2004, Pew Research Center is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts, which serves as its primary funder. The organization is known for its rigorous methodologies and commitment to independence, accuracy, and transparency.

Official website, https://www.pewresearch.org/

Ran Abramitzky

Ran Abramitzky is the Stanford Federal Credit Union Professor of Economics and the Senior Associate Dean of the Social Sciences at Stanford University. His research focuses on economic history and applied microeconomics, with a particular emphasis on immigration and income inequality.

Abramitzky is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He has received several prestigious awards, including the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship and grants from the National Science Foundation and the Russell Sage Foundation.

He has authored two books:

- The Mystery of the Kibbutz: Egalitarian Principles in a Capitalist World (2018), which won the Gyorgi Ranki Biennial Prize for an outstanding book on European economic history.

- Streets of Gold: America's Untold Story of Immigrant Success (2022), co-authored with Leah Boustan, which was recognized as one of the best books of 2022 by The New Yorker, Forbes, and Behavioral Scientist.

Abramitzky holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Northwestern University.